4th String QB's
Thursday, May 3, 2012
This is Why We Chop
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
A 4th String look at the Divisional Round
A 4th String look at the Divisional Round
We’ve seen this divisional matchup twice already with the way team heading home victorious. Week three pitted these two AFC North members against each other in Pittsburgh with Big Ben still sitting out as part of his suspension. In round one of this series the Ravens won 17-14, even with Charlie Batch leading the home team the Ravens need a touchdown from Houshmandzadeh with under a minute to leave on top. In the second matchup Baltimore was up 10-6 with under four minutes to play when they decided to go to the air on 2nd and 5 from their own 43-yard line when Troy Polamalu came of the edge separating Joe Flacco from the ball allowing Lamar Woodley to scoop the ball and stumble to the nine-yard line. Three plays later Roethlisberger connected with Issac Redman for the go ahead score to make it 13-10.
For you math majors, you realize that that the cumulative score for these two games is 27-27 so this is truly a rubber match that will decide who plays for the chance to play in Dallas. Both of these teams house punishing, ball hawking defenses and balanced offensive attacks. A simple glance at statistical rankings, Pittsburgh holds the edge in pass offense(14th to 20th), rush offense(11th to 14th), pass defense (12th to 21st), and rush defense(1st to 5th).
I have to give the nod to the team that is better rested, which is also younger overall than the Ravens. I think this game will come down to which quarterback plays better, and I like what Roethlisberger has done down the stretch leading their offense. Keep a close eye on the turnover battle and the kicking game. In the first matchup there were three turnovers and three missed field goals and the second round had two turnovers.
Prediction: Steelers 21, Ravens 17
6th-Seed Green Bay Packers at 1st-Seed Atlanta Falcons
This like all of the Divisional playoff games is a rematch, you can find my preview of that matchup here. In that game the Falcons defeated the Packers 20-17 in Week 12 in the Georgia Dome. In that game Aaron Rogers had a big first half fumble on the goal line. Matt Ryan turned the turnover into seven points 14 plays later connecting with veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez.
The Packers introduced their newest offensive weapon last week in Philadelphia, 6th round rookie running back James Starks out of Buffalo, who shredded the Eagles defense for 123 yards and a 5.3 yards average. If Green Bay implements a similar game plan, it will be a different look than when Rodgers led the team in rushing in ATL pulling it down for 51 rushing yards. The Falcons’ defense has shown its’ ability to stand up against multidimensional offensive attacks like New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Baltimore.
The Falcons should look to get their running game on track early and staying balanced. They were able to do this against the Packers throwing the ball 28 times compared to 27 rushes. The 55 offensive plays is significant in that it is the 2nd lowest amount the Falcons have run, the least coming in the loss to New Orleans. If Atlanta can get the Michael Turner and Jason Snelling going early, they can effectively control the pace of the game and allow the defense to stay fresh. This will also allow the passing game to settle in and give Roddy White, Gonzalez, and Jenkins more room to work. Charles Woodson, Green Bay’s all-pro corner, did a good job against White, holding him to a then season low 49 yards on nine catches. The quieting of the NFL’s leading receiver did not shut down the passing game as Ryan connected with 8 other players. Turner has to put a cork in his recent fumblitus, giving the ball up in each of their last two games in the red zone.
Green Bay has once again begun to play like one of the best teams in the NFL reeling off impressive wins against Chicago and Philadelphia and giving the AFC’s number one seed all they could handle. Look for the Georgia Dome to have an impact on the game, like it did in the first matchup, creating a couple of false starts. Atlanta will need to limit Greg Jennings from getting separation and force throws into traffic.
Green Bay having played the equivalent of two playoff games in a row one on the road and traveling again this week will be a big advantage to a team that was resting during wild card weekend and haven’t traveled since their week 15 trip to Seattle. Add to that the fact that the road team will be playing on a short week, I think the Falcons hold the edge in this rematch. Look for ringless veterans Gonzalez, Abraham, and McClure to have big games in their quest for the Lombardi Trophy.
Prediction: Falcons 28, Packers 24
4th-Seed Seattle Seahawks at 2nd-Seed Chicago Bears
The Bears and the Seahawks meet in the most surprising rematch of the Divisional round. The first meeting between was also at Soldier Field with the away team leaving with a 23-20 victory. This week 6 matchup was well played by both teams, with no turnovers. The potential deciding factor in the game was a missed 54-yard field goal by Robbie Gould with the Bears down by 10 and under 10 minutes to play however their defense forced a three and out and Devin Hester returned the subsequent punt 89 yards to pull within 3 points. The Seahawks proceeded to run the clock out after a failed onside kick.
The Bears have been an up and down team on their road to the number two seed, losing at New York-NFC, at Green Bay, and at home against Seattle, Washington, and getting rocked byNew England in the snow. Chicago has posted some quality wins by defeating the Eagles, Packers, and Jets. The key to Chicago’s success correlates directly with the performance of their quarterback, Jay Cutler. In their five losses, Cutler has thrown nine interceptions and fumbled three times. Chicago made some offensive adjustments midseason after Lovie Smith sat offensive coordinator down and told him to dial back the offense. These adjustments allowed the Bears to effectively use Forte while limiting the mistakes at quarterback.
Seattle proved their doubters wrong last week, but must quickly refocus their attention if they want to extend their season. The Seahawks were able to pull off the upset against the defending champs because of smart football, but were aided by the Saints overlooking them completely. Make no mistake the Bears will not make the same mistake. Seattle put together a great game plan against New Orleans and showed a variety of looks on offense and defense. The Matt Hasselbeck led offense exploded for a season high 41 points, including seven coming on the earth shattering run by Marshawn Lynch. Seattle only had two regular season wins over teams with winning records and still have a lot to prove, last week showed they are capable of winning in the playoffs.
The Chicago defense has played incredibly well late in the season and are 2nd in the league in rushing defense. Look for Urlacher and Peppers to take over the game with Hasselbeck returning to his high turnover ways. The Bears will make better use of Matt Forte than his 11 total touches in round 1.
Prediction: Bears 25, Seahawks 13
6th Seed-New York Jets at 1st Seed-New England Patriots
The Divisional Round Finale will be a rematch of two AFC East teams that each have posted impressive wins over their opponent earlier in the season. The first, and lesser talked about, saw the Jets win the week 2 matchup at the New Meadowlands. In this game the Patriots were held to not only three redzone trips, but in those three trips, they only came away with points once, highly unlike this dangerous offense. Even more uncharacteristically Tom Brady was responsible for three turnover in East Rutherford, two interceptions and a redzone fumble. Brady’s three turnovers accounted for three-fifths of his season total. Since their first meeting the Patriots have seen some major changes to their personnel, adding Deon Branch and trading Randy Moss, but also maturing quickly on a young defense.
After the changes the two teams met in New England in primetime on Monday Night Football in what was billed as the game of the year. It didn’t take long for this game to get out of hand, as the Patriots had a seventeen-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and by halftime they had added another touchdown making the score 24-3 at intermission. New England didn’t take their foot off the gas in the second half finishing the game with an impressive 45-3 win, against a then 9-2 team. In this match up the Jets were able to get their rushing attack going piling up 152 yards, but couldn’t consistently get any single back going. The Patriots defense had Mark Sanchez rattled all night and force three interceptions. In this game both teams had eleven days between games and the Patriots used it to add new dimensions, showing an incredible amount of new fronts both offensively and defensively to the Jets.
Following their last meeting New York has gotten their offense and defense back on track on the way to the playoffs. New England has continued their winning ways collecting four more impressive wins and home field advantage through the playoffs. Since the Patriots last loss, a 20-point defeat at Cleveland in week 9, they have scored 31 or more points in all of them and have held four teams (two playoff teams) to seven points or less over the eight game span.
New York will have to get their running game going against Vince Wilfork and a front seven holding opponents to just 108 yards per game. If Tomlinson and Greene are not able to eat up yardage and clock, it won’t allow Sanchez to become comfortable. I look for Brian Schottenheimer to scheme away from the Pats bulk up front in the running game and to get Sanchez out of the pocket on roll outs to become comfortable. Brady is due for a rough game and the Jets seem like the perfect defense to give him fits.
I think the Jets given the Patriots a better run for their money than most people are giving them, but in the end I think an off day from Brady can still win.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Jets 28
Friday, January 7, 2011
4th String Look at WildCard Weekend
Saturday, January 8th, 2011 4:30pm NBC
This game is all about teams playing with something to prove. There’s been a lot of talk on whether or not the 7-9 Seahawks deserve a spot in the playoffs or not, but the fact of the matter is that they are in and want to prove they belong. The Saints (11-5), coming off a loss to divisional rival Tampa, want to demonstrate that they are more than able to repeat as world champions. On paper this looks like a gift wrapped blowout for the defending champs as they face a team with seemingly no stars. The Saints camp resembles more of a MASH unit than a playoff team with multiple stars being held out of practice. The most recent casualties are running backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory being put on injured reserve opening the door for Reggie Bush and fourth stringer Julius Jones. On the bright side New Orleans has gone long stints of the season without one or two of their running backs. The other side is that Drew Brees has shouldered most of that burden resulting 22 interceptions, at least one in his last twelve games and more than any playoff quarterback. The fifth seeded Saints are also hurting on the defensive side of the ball where Malcom Jenkins is questionable after not practicing all week.
It is no secret that five and a half hour flight the Saints will endure, is a huge disadvantage for a team that could use that time to have extra treatments and massages. The Seahawks should also benefit from hosting on Wild Card Saturday as Qwest Field is arguably the loudest venue in the NFL. The scales are far from tilted towards Seattle as this matchup will pit their 27th passing defense (249.6 ypg) against the league’s 3rd best passing attack (277.6). Without Thomas and Ivory look for the Saints to air the ball out and hit Bush underneath even in short yardage situations.
Pete Carroll announced on Thursday that Matt Hasselbeck will lead their offense after sharing snaps all week with fan favorite, Charlie Whitehurst. Hasselbeck has plenty of playoff experience to feed off of, though his 10 interceptions over his last 4 starts leaves a lot to be desired.
New Orleans can win this game with average outputs on offense and defense, but cannot come into this game overconfident. Despite their 7-9 record the Seahawks can win this game. The forecast calls for rain and cold weather which helps the non-dome team as well as hurts the Saints gameplan.
Prediction: Saints 26, Seahawks 21 Saints win their 1st road playoff game ever…closer than most think
6th-Seed New York Jets (11-5) at 3rd-Seed Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Saturday, January 8th, 2011 8:00pm NBC
This game is personal, at least according to Jets head coach Rex Ryan. I’m not so sure why it’s so personal other than it is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game. The Colts, after losing 4 out of five midseason, have returned to the form we’re used to seeing and it’s no coincidence that it correlates to the return of their rushing attack. The emergence of Donald Brown has help alleviate the strain on Peyton Manning and his makeshift receiving unit that are leading the league in passing yards. Despite the return of the running game they are ranked 29th in yards per game and will be facing one of the league’s stingiest (3rd) rush defenses.
The Colts’ offense isn’t the only one starting to click as the New York’s has started stringing together some quality performances. The Jet’s tandem of LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, both of which had last week off, should have a big day attacking the Colts defense that is 29th preventing rushing yardage. LT chose to rest his aging body over possibly reaching 1,000 yards, but look for him to pick up more than the 86 yards needed to achieve the milestone for the ninth time in his ten year career. I expect a gameplan that allows Mark Sanchez can play within himself and limit the turnovers by keying off of play-action almost exclusively.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Rex comes to Indy with a gameplan that is meant to make Manning over think. Many people think that Rex Ryan needs this game to validate his ways. Like always the Jets will leave their corners in man coverage with blitzes off edge, which should allow for Tamme to have a big game with Manning attacking the middle of the field. If the Colts offense can draw the Jet’s makeshift safeties in Manning could connect on some deep plays even against their Revis, Cromartie, and Wilson.
Prediction: Jets 26, Colts 24 I had Jets all the way in this game, then flip-flopped back and forth, but I go back to last week and the Colts barely beating Houston at home to even make the playoffs.
5th-Seed Baltimore Ravens (12-4) at 4th-Seed Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Arrowhead Stadium will host one of the best matchups of the weekend, the league’s best rushing team, Chiefs’ (10-6), against the Raven’s 5th ranked rush defense lead. Kansas City is averaging 164.2 yards on the ground thanks to Jamaal Charles’ unheard of 6.4 yards per attempt. The Chiefs may be the most unbalanced offensive team in the postseason, but when Matt Cassel needs to air it out Dwayne Bowe has been his go to guy hauling in 15 touchdowns. Bowe has been limited this week with an illness, but should be ready for the 1 O’clock kick Sunday. I expect the Ravens to play over top of Bowe daring Cassel to force his throws.
The Joe Flacco led offense brings a much more balanced attack to the 1st round, having thrown the ball only four more times than running it over the course of the season. Ray Rice has had a solid year, good enough to finish in the top ten in rushing, but the key to the Ravens offensive success is quality outing by the signal caller. Flacco’s ability to limit turnovers keeps them on track. The passing game is also balanced as the kid from Delaware spreads the ball to all his weapons targeting Derrick Mason and Anquan Boldin nearly the same amount of times.
One question mark on the defensive side of the ball is Ed Reed who, when healthy can take over a game putting pressure on the quarterback coming off the edge but even more with his ball hawking ability. The Pro-Bowl safety was downgraded from probable to questionable after Thursday’s practice. I fully expect him to play, but keep an eye on him to see if he’s slowed by his neck injury. Facing a team that runs the ball as much as KC does, Baltimore’s offense needs to put together some long drives to allow their older defense time to rest.
The Arrowhead noise will affect the Ravens offense and I expect the Chiefs to get to Flacco often, but I’m not sure it will be enough when it’s all said and done.
Prediction: Ravens 17, Chiefs 14
6th-Seed Green Bay Packers (10-6) at 4th-Seed Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Sunday, January 9th, 2011 4:30pm FOX
Michael Vick says he’s 100 percent, in Atlanta I’m not sure I would have believed him, but it appears he’s there. Vick will face a Packer’s defense that will bring pressure and attempt to rattle the Eagles’ quarterback early. As teams have gotten more pressure of Vick though the season he has become more susceptible to mistakes and has taken a beating in the process. Philadelphia has apparently put down new, fresh grass to make Lincoln Financial a faster track for the Philly youngsters on offense. A big question is whether or not the home team simplifies their offense at all because their lack of postseason experience.
One interesting note on Aaron Rogers’ season is that the Packers four losses that he played significant time correlate with 3 of his four largest passing outputs. The Packers need Brandon Jackson to at least become a threat in the game against an Eagles defense that is middle of the road against the pass and the rush.
Both teams seem as healthy as they have been in recent history. I think defense wins this game in the end and the better defense resided in Green Bay. Aaron Rogers will find his targets early and often attacking the soft side of the defense. This is a Packers team that almost beat New England with Matt Flynn, destroyed the Giants, and beat a Chicago team that is sitting at home this week with a first round bye. Andy Reid is 7-1 in 1st round games, but hasn’t played a team this good.
Prediction: Packers 32, Eagles 28
Friday, December 24, 2010
Week 16-Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Preview
Somehow it's already week 16 of the NFL season which gives us the game we've all been waiting for, the Atlanta Falcons (12-2) and the New Orleans Saints (10-4) on football's biggest stage, Monday Night Football. This rivalry is viewed nationally and by saints fans as a one sided affair, but make no mistake this is far from a one dog fight. The two organizations have very similar histories and were birthed just a year apart, with the Atlanta franchise coming first in 1966. Falcons have an overall record of 288-392-6 (.424) slightly below that of the Saints' 285-382-5 (.427). Both teams have only one NFC championship each and as saints fans will quickly jump to let you know their visit brought home the Lombardi trophy.
The series holds different results, the Falcons hold a firm grip on the series record that stands at 46-37(1-0 postseason). The rivalry is on built deeply on hatred as anyone can tell you that's been to a contest where the two have done battle. It's not a series rooted in streaks or tendencies, however 1995 through the 2000 season never witnessed a New Orleans victory. Even during their championship run a year ago it's hard to argue, if you watched the games, that Atlanta wasn't their two toughest wins. Growing up I always heard accounts of the busses trips organized by rival fans for away games that almost always erupted into fights upon arrival. When these two teams square off you also don't see a lot of blow out, though there have been a few. The largest margin of victory came in 1973 when the Falcons handed the saints a 62-7 thumping. In 1987 the saints recoded their biggest win shutting out Atlanta 38-0.
Like in series past the 83rd addition of the rivalry saw a tough competitive fight in week three of this year. After forcing three and out To start the game the saints 1st quarter, got on the board after a big punt return by lance moore, who would be a thorn in the Falcons side all day. The away team quickly returned punches scoring on their ensuing drive to tie the game at sevens. Things got even better for Atlanta by intercepting Bresus' first pass of their next drive, but could not capitalize on the miscue and after punting were quickly bitten again by the man that wears eye black under only one eye....even in domes. The 2nd quarter only saw on score, but it was a prototypical Falcons' drive eating up over 10 minutes of clock, covering 70 yards on twenty plays, capped off by a Turner one-yard touchdown. After coming out of halftime all square at 14, the second half didn't help answer any questions as the two teams traded 7-3 quarters. The final score of regulation coming off the foot of, the soon to be goat, hartley wi under ten seconds left on the clock. In extra time the Falcon's offense gave the saints the ball after only four plays and sat back as they watched them drive nearly the length of the field before the aforementioned goat booted the would-be game winner WIDE LEFT. Not to be denied again Matty Ice and the offense overcame a 10 yard penalty to start the drive and orchestrated a drive to set up Matt Bryant from 46 yards and watched as the ball sailed throw the uprights. Falcons win 27-24
Fast forward to week 16 and a game where the two NFC South teams will face at the peek of health. Since their meeting in September the saints have posted a 8-3 record highlighted by a 20-10 win against the Steelers with loses at Arizona, to Cleveland, and last week in Baltimore. The weeks since their last meeting has also seen brees add to a season total of 19 interceptions,10 more than his counterpart, throwing at least one in his last 10 contests.
The Falcons have flown relatively under the radar while compiling a league best 14-2 record thanks in large part to a consistent offensive attack that eats away at the play clock and a very underrated 'bend but don't break' defense led by John Abraham and his 12 sacks, good for third highest in the NFL in spite of fewer plays.
This game is gigantic even without the playoff implications and the national spotlight and when you add it all together with the world war that's going on between fans online it is going to be an interesting battle Monday night. With a win on Monday or against Carolina in week 17, Atlanta can secure the number one seed in the NFC and Dome Field Advantage through the playoffs. The saints need a win to guarantee their spot in the postseason as well. This game comes down to if Michael Turner can get those tree trunks he calls legs to burn up yardage against the new orleans defense that gave up 153 yards on the ground to Ray Rice a week ago. The Falcons can also help their cause by limiting the big plays and wrapping up in the tackles as the saints an extremely fast offensive unit. I think brees attempts to go to their air very often and using his running backs as outlets routinely.
Falcons 37-29
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
NFL Week 15-Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks Review
The defense looked shaky at best on the first drive of the game getting eaten up for yardage as the Seahawks offense went to work mixing between swing passes and runs up the gut. Van Gorder seemingly rallied his troops and took away the swing passes and receiver screens for the rest of the game. In the 3rd quarter, when the defense has been susceptible to mistakes, they stepped up and forced 3 turnovers.
Friday, December 17, 2010
NFL Team's Christmas Wish List
Rendering of the New Marlins Stadium |
Rex Ryan's Possible New Whip |