Week 13 Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Recap of the Green Bay game: Obviously this was a huge win for the Falcons, who control their own destiny for home field advantage through the playoffs. There were a couple of things that really stuck out to me in this game:
-The Jason Snelling hamstring injury, which I’m assuming came on his flight through the air on the goal line. He was held out of the rest of the game which may have just been precautionary, but the Falcons need him down the stretch. He was also held out of practice on Wednesday, but we’ll see that a lot over the last month to keep players fresh. How big would it be to miss Snelling? Just look at a 3rd and 4 at GB 38 play early in the fourth quarter. With a 17-10 lead the Falcons were driving looking to ice the game, three out of the first four plays went to Michael Turner. Naturally the 2nd guy spelled Turner, but this time it was Gartrell Johnson instead of Snelling that was targeted and Johnson failed to gain the 1st down and fumbled the ball out of bounds on a play that Snelling moves the chain on more often than not. Speedy recovery #44.
-A play before the huge “catch” by Tony Gonzalez made on 4th down, Ovie Mughelli made an essential play on dump off pass on 3rd and 19 to pick up 16 to even make going for it on 4th a question. Ovie’s contributions, like Snelling’s to this team are unquantifiable; they show up big week in and week out without much praise. This time it lead to a significant touchdown by Gonzalez.
- It’s hard to complain about the three personal foul penalties when this team has been so well disciplined all season, but they all came at bad times that either stalled their drives or furthered Packer drives. The first one on Harvey Dahl for pushing a defended to the ground after the play directly in front of the ref turning a manageable 3rd and 6 into a drive killing 3rd and 20. All was not lost as we still got 3 points out of it, but we were headed towards putting the road team down by 7 before they even got settled. The second PF was on Corey Peters where the ball carrier had just gotten past him and his hand landed on the facemask, in all fairness it looked like Brandon Jackson was headed toward picking up most of the added 15-yards anyways. The final foul was on William Moore, a second year player, for giving the receiver an extra healthy shove out of bounds that gave Aaron Rogers an extra push on the drive. Moore’s penalty looked like it was brought about from frustration and should be fixed moving forward.
Week 13 brings divisional foe Tampa Bay at the Pirate Ship. This game is important as all games in December are, but it looms large because of possible tie-breakers with New Orleans based on common opponents. It is never easy to beat a team twice, especially on the road, though it appears that Tampa area could be headed towards a blackout.
The last meeting, less than a month ago, ended with a goal line stand by the Falcons defense to preserve a 27-21 win. Since losing in Atlanta the Buccaneers have played some good football beating cellar dweller Carolina 31-16, traveling to San Francisco for an impressive 21-0 win before losing at Baltimore on Sunday by one seven 17-10. Second year quarterback Josh Freeman has not throw an interception since the 2-INT performance against the Falcons. Freeman’s errorless streak is a little surprising because Tampa seems to be leaning more heavily on him than earlier in the season. One thing to keep an eye on Sunday is designed runs and scrambling from Freeman after watching Aaron Rogers picking up multiple first downs leading the Packers in rushing with 55 yards. Will Van Gorder leave a spy in the box to counter act this? The Bucs’ passing game is less threatening than Green Bay’s and likely won’t require the extra defender in coverage.
I look for the Falcons to attempt to strike early through the air and saving Turner for the second half to wear down the defense if Jason Snelling cannot go. If Atlanta can get up early they need to put the game away, by not relaxing on defense play-calling, like they have been prone to do.
The Falcons’ special teams must keep the momentum build in the win against the Pack as we all saw Michael Spurlock’s speed in Atlanta as the speedster racked up 209 yards on only 4 returns, one going the distance.
The Falcons can make NFL history by playing their fifth game in a row without a turnover on Sunday. If the Falcons can do that, reduce the inopportune penalties and prevent Freeman from beating them with his legs I think they take one more step towards playing in the Dome in late January.
Score Prediction:
Robert: Falcons 30 Buccaneers 21
Dekalb: Falcons 27 Buccaneers 17
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