A 4th String look at the Divisional Round
We’ve seen this divisional matchup twice already with the way team heading home victorious. Week three pitted these two AFC North members against each other in Pittsburgh with Big Ben still sitting out as part of his suspension. In round one of this series the Ravens won 17-14, even with Charlie Batch leading the home team the Ravens need a touchdown from Houshmandzadeh with under a minute to leave on top. In the second matchup Baltimore was up 10-6 with under four minutes to play when they decided to go to the air on 2nd and 5 from their own 43-yard line when Troy Polamalu came of the edge separating Joe Flacco from the ball allowing Lamar Woodley to scoop the ball and stumble to the nine-yard line. Three plays later Roethlisberger connected with Issac Redman for the go ahead score to make it 13-10.
For you math majors, you realize that that the cumulative score for these two games is 27-27 so this is truly a rubber match that will decide who plays for the chance to play in Dallas. Both of these teams house punishing, ball hawking defenses and balanced offensive attacks. A simple glance at statistical rankings, Pittsburgh holds the edge in pass offense(14th to 20th), rush offense(11th to 14th), pass defense (12th to 21st), and rush defense(1st to 5th).
I have to give the nod to the team that is better rested, which is also younger overall than the Ravens. I think this game will come down to which quarterback plays better, and I like what Roethlisberger has done down the stretch leading their offense. Keep a close eye on the turnover battle and the kicking game. In the first matchup there were three turnovers and three missed field goals and the second round had two turnovers.
Prediction: Steelers 21, Ravens 17
6th-Seed Green Bay Packers at 1st-Seed Atlanta Falcons
This like all of the Divisional playoff games is a rematch, you can find my preview of that matchup here. In that game the Falcons defeated the Packers 20-17 in Week 12 in the Georgia Dome. In that game Aaron Rogers had a big first half fumble on the goal line. Matt Ryan turned the turnover into seven points 14 plays later connecting with veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez.
The Packers introduced their newest offensive weapon last week in Philadelphia, 6th round rookie running back James Starks out of Buffalo, who shredded the Eagles defense for 123 yards and a 5.3 yards average. If Green Bay implements a similar game plan, it will be a different look than when Rodgers led the team in rushing in ATL pulling it down for 51 rushing yards. The Falcons’ defense has shown its’ ability to stand up against multidimensional offensive attacks like New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Baltimore.
The Falcons should look to get their running game on track early and staying balanced. They were able to do this against the Packers throwing the ball 28 times compared to 27 rushes. The 55 offensive plays is significant in that it is the 2nd lowest amount the Falcons have run, the least coming in the loss to New Orleans. If Atlanta can get the Michael Turner and Jason Snelling going early, they can effectively control the pace of the game and allow the defense to stay fresh. This will also allow the passing game to settle in and give Roddy White, Gonzalez, and Jenkins more room to work. Charles Woodson, Green Bay’s all-pro corner, did a good job against White, holding him to a then season low 49 yards on nine catches. The quieting of the NFL’s leading receiver did not shut down the passing game as Ryan connected with 8 other players. Turner has to put a cork in his recent fumblitus, giving the ball up in each of their last two games in the red zone.
Green Bay has once again begun to play like one of the best teams in the NFL reeling off impressive wins against Chicago and Philadelphia and giving the AFC’s number one seed all they could handle. Look for the Georgia Dome to have an impact on the game, like it did in the first matchup, creating a couple of false starts. Atlanta will need to limit Greg Jennings from getting separation and force throws into traffic.
Green Bay having played the equivalent of two playoff games in a row one on the road and traveling again this week will be a big advantage to a team that was resting during wild card weekend and haven’t traveled since their week 15 trip to Seattle. Add to that the fact that the road team will be playing on a short week, I think the Falcons hold the edge in this rematch. Look for ringless veterans Gonzalez, Abraham, and McClure to have big games in their quest for the Lombardi Trophy.
Prediction: Falcons 28, Packers 24
4th-Seed Seattle Seahawks at 2nd-Seed Chicago Bears
The Bears and the Seahawks meet in the most surprising rematch of the Divisional round. The first meeting between was also at Soldier Field with the away team leaving with a 23-20 victory. This week 6 matchup was well played by both teams, with no turnovers. The potential deciding factor in the game was a missed 54-yard field goal by Robbie Gould with the Bears down by 10 and under 10 minutes to play however their defense forced a three and out and Devin Hester returned the subsequent punt 89 yards to pull within 3 points. The Seahawks proceeded to run the clock out after a failed onside kick.
The Bears have been an up and down team on their road to the number two seed, losing at New York-NFC, at Green Bay, and at home against Seattle, Washington, and getting rocked byNew England in the snow. Chicago has posted some quality wins by defeating the Eagles, Packers, and Jets. The key to Chicago’s success correlates directly with the performance of their quarterback, Jay Cutler. In their five losses, Cutler has thrown nine interceptions and fumbled three times. Chicago made some offensive adjustments midseason after Lovie Smith sat offensive coordinator down and told him to dial back the offense. These adjustments allowed the Bears to effectively use Forte while limiting the mistakes at quarterback.
Seattle proved their doubters wrong last week, but must quickly refocus their attention if they want to extend their season. The Seahawks were able to pull off the upset against the defending champs because of smart football, but were aided by the Saints overlooking them completely. Make no mistake the Bears will not make the same mistake. Seattle put together a great game plan against New Orleans and showed a variety of looks on offense and defense. The Matt Hasselbeck led offense exploded for a season high 41 points, including seven coming on the earth shattering run by Marshawn Lynch. Seattle only had two regular season wins over teams with winning records and still have a lot to prove, last week showed they are capable of winning in the playoffs.
The Chicago defense has played incredibly well late in the season and are 2nd in the league in rushing defense. Look for Urlacher and Peppers to take over the game with Hasselbeck returning to his high turnover ways. The Bears will make better use of Matt Forte than his 11 total touches in round 1.
Prediction: Bears 25, Seahawks 13
6th Seed-New York Jets at 1st Seed-New England Patriots
The Divisional Round Finale will be a rematch of two AFC East teams that each have posted impressive wins over their opponent earlier in the season. The first, and lesser talked about, saw the Jets win the week 2 matchup at the New Meadowlands. In this game the Patriots were held to not only three redzone trips, but in those three trips, they only came away with points once, highly unlike this dangerous offense. Even more uncharacteristically Tom Brady was responsible for three turnover in East Rutherford, two interceptions and a redzone fumble. Brady’s three turnovers accounted for three-fifths of his season total. Since their first meeting the Patriots have seen some major changes to their personnel, adding Deon Branch and trading Randy Moss, but also maturing quickly on a young defense.
After the changes the two teams met in New England in primetime on Monday Night Football in what was billed as the game of the year. It didn’t take long for this game to get out of hand, as the Patriots had a seventeen-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and by halftime they had added another touchdown making the score 24-3 at intermission. New England didn’t take their foot off the gas in the second half finishing the game with an impressive 45-3 win, against a then 9-2 team. In this match up the Jets were able to get their rushing attack going piling up 152 yards, but couldn’t consistently get any single back going. The Patriots defense had Mark Sanchez rattled all night and force three interceptions. In this game both teams had eleven days between games and the Patriots used it to add new dimensions, showing an incredible amount of new fronts both offensively and defensively to the Jets.
Following their last meeting New York has gotten their offense and defense back on track on the way to the playoffs. New England has continued their winning ways collecting four more impressive wins and home field advantage through the playoffs. Since the Patriots last loss, a 20-point defeat at Cleveland in week 9, they have scored 31 or more points in all of them and have held four teams (two playoff teams) to seven points or less over the eight game span.
New York will have to get their running game going against Vince Wilfork and a front seven holding opponents to just 108 yards per game. If Tomlinson and Greene are not able to eat up yardage and clock, it won’t allow Sanchez to become comfortable. I look for Brian Schottenheimer to scheme away from the Pats bulk up front in the running game and to get Sanchez out of the pocket on roll outs to become comfortable. Brady is due for a rough game and the Jets seem like the perfect defense to give him fits.
I think the Jets given the Patriots a better run for their money than most people are giving them, but in the end I think an off day from Brady can still win.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Jets 28
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