A 4th String Look at Wild Card Weekend
Saturday, January 8th, 2011 4:30pm NBC
This game is all about teams playing with something to prove. There’s been a lot of talk on whether or not the 7-9 Seahawks deserve a spot in the playoffs or not, but the fact of the matter is that they are in and want to prove they belong. The Saints (11-5), coming off a loss to divisional rival Tampa, want to demonstrate that they are more than able to repeat as world champions. On paper this looks like a gift wrapped blowout for the defending champs as they face a team with seemingly no stars. The Saints camp resembles more of a MASH unit than a playoff team with multiple stars being held out of practice. The most recent casualties are running backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory being put on injured reserve opening the door for Reggie Bush and fourth stringer Julius Jones. On the bright side New Orleans has gone long stints of the season without one or two of their running backs. The other side is that Drew Brees has shouldered most of that burden resulting 22 interceptions, at least one in his last twelve games and more than any playoff quarterback. The fifth seeded Saints are also hurting on the defensive side of the ball where Malcom Jenkins is questionable after not practicing all week.
It is no secret that five and a half hour flight the Saints will endure, is a huge disadvantage for a team that could use that time to have extra treatments and massages. The Seahawks should also benefit from hosting on Wild Card Saturday as Qwest Field is arguably the loudest venue in the NFL. The scales are far from tilted towards Seattle as this matchup will pit their 27th passing defense (249.6 ypg) against the league’s 3rd best passing attack (277.6). Without Thomas and Ivory look for the Saints to air the ball out and hit Bush underneath even in short yardage situations.
Pete Carroll announced on Thursday that Matt Hasselbeck will lead their offense after sharing snaps all week with fan favorite, Charlie Whitehurst. Hasselbeck has plenty of playoff experience to feed off of, though his 10 interceptions over his last 4 starts leaves a lot to be desired.
New Orleans can win this game with average outputs on offense and defense, but cannot come into this game overconfident. Despite their 7-9 record the Seahawks can win this game. The forecast calls for rain and cold weather which helps the non-dome team as well as hurts the Saints gameplan.
Prediction: Saints 26, Seahawks 21 Saints win their 1st road playoff game ever…closer than most think
6th-Seed New York Jets (11-5) at 3rd-Seed Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Saturday, January 8th, 2011 8:00pm NBC
This game is personal, at least according to Jets head coach Rex Ryan. I’m not so sure why it’s so personal other than it is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game. The Colts, after losing 4 out of five midseason, have returned to the form we’re used to seeing and it’s no coincidence that it correlates to the return of their rushing attack. The emergence of Donald Brown has help alleviate the strain on Peyton Manning and his makeshift receiving unit that are leading the league in passing yards. Despite the return of the running game they are ranked 29th in yards per game and will be facing one of the league’s stingiest (3rd) rush defenses.
The Colts’ offense isn’t the only one starting to click as the New York’s has started stringing together some quality performances. The Jet’s tandem of LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, both of which had last week off, should have a big day attacking the Colts defense that is 29th preventing rushing yardage. LT chose to rest his aging body over possibly reaching 1,000 yards, but look for him to pick up more than the 86 yards needed to achieve the milestone for the ninth time in his ten year career. I expect a gameplan that allows Mark Sanchez can play within himself and limit the turnovers by keying off of play-action almost exclusively.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Rex comes to Indy with a gameplan that is meant to make Manning over think. Many people think that Rex Ryan needs this game to validate his ways. Like always the Jets will leave their corners in man coverage with blitzes off edge, which should allow for Tamme to have a big game with Manning attacking the middle of the field. If the Colts offense can draw the Jet’s makeshift safeties in Manning could connect on some deep plays even against their Revis, Cromartie, and Wilson.
Prediction: Jets 26, Colts 24 I had Jets all the way in this game, then flip-flopped back and forth, but I go back to last week and the Colts barely beating Houston at home to even make the playoffs.
5th-Seed Baltimore Ravens (12-4) at 4th-Seed Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Sunday, January 9th, 2011 1:00pm CBS
Arrowhead Stadium will host one of the best matchups of the weekend, the league’s best rushing team, Chiefs’ (10-6), against the Raven’s 5th ranked rush defense lead. Kansas City is averaging 164.2 yards on the ground thanks to Jamaal Charles’ unheard of 6.4 yards per attempt. The Chiefs may be the most unbalanced offensive team in the postseason, but when Matt Cassel needs to air it out Dwayne Bowe has been his go to guy hauling in 15 touchdowns. Bowe has been limited this week with an illness, but should be ready for the 1 O’clock kick Sunday. I expect the Ravens to play over top of Bowe daring Cassel to force his throws.
The Joe Flacco led offense brings a much more balanced attack to the 1st round, having thrown the ball only four more times than running it over the course of the season. Ray Rice has had a solid year, good enough to finish in the top ten in rushing, but the key to the Ravens offensive success is quality outing by the signal caller. Flacco’s ability to limit turnovers keeps them on track. The passing game is also balanced as the kid from Delaware spreads the ball to all his weapons targeting Derrick Mason and Anquan Boldin nearly the same amount of times.
One question mark on the defensive side of the ball is Ed Reed who, when healthy can take over a game putting pressure on the quarterback coming off the edge but even more with his ball hawking ability. The Pro-Bowl safety was downgraded from probable to questionable after Thursday’s practice. I fully expect him to play, but keep an eye on him to see if he’s slowed by his neck injury. Facing a team that runs the ball as much as KC does, Baltimore’s offense needs to put together some long drives to allow their older defense time to rest.
The Arrowhead noise will affect the Ravens offense and I expect the Chiefs to get to Flacco often, but I’m not sure it will be enough when it’s all said and done.
Prediction: Ravens 17, Chiefs 14
6th-Seed Green Bay Packers (10-6) at 4th-Seed Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Sunday, January 9th, 2011 4:30pm FOX
Michael Vick says he’s 100 percent, in Atlanta I’m not sure I would have believed him, but it appears he’s there. Vick will face a Packer’s defense that will bring pressure and attempt to rattle the Eagles’ quarterback early. As teams have gotten more pressure of Vick though the season he has become more susceptible to mistakes and has taken a beating in the process. Philadelphia has apparently put down new, fresh grass to make Lincoln Financial a faster track for the Philly youngsters on offense. A big question is whether or not the home team simplifies their offense at all because their lack of postseason experience.
One interesting note on Aaron Rogers’ season is that the Packers four losses that he played significant time correlate with 3 of his four largest passing outputs. The Packers need Brandon Jackson to at least become a threat in the game against an Eagles defense that is middle of the road against the pass and the rush.
Both teams seem as healthy as they have been in recent history. I think defense wins this game in the end and the better defense resided in Green Bay. Aaron Rogers will find his targets early and often attacking the soft side of the defense. This is a Packers team that almost beat New England with Matt Flynn, destroyed the Giants, and beat a Chicago team that is sitting at home this week with a first round bye. Andy Reid is 7-1 in 1st round games, but hasn’t played a team this good.
Prediction: Packers 32, Eagles 28
Arrowhead Stadium will host one of the best matchups of the weekend, the league’s best rushing team, Chiefs’ (10-6), against the Raven’s 5th ranked rush defense lead. Kansas City is averaging 164.2 yards on the ground thanks to Jamaal Charles’ unheard of 6.4 yards per attempt. The Chiefs may be the most unbalanced offensive team in the postseason, but when Matt Cassel needs to air it out Dwayne Bowe has been his go to guy hauling in 15 touchdowns. Bowe has been limited this week with an illness, but should be ready for the 1 O’clock kick Sunday. I expect the Ravens to play over top of Bowe daring Cassel to force his throws.
The Joe Flacco led offense brings a much more balanced attack to the 1st round, having thrown the ball only four more times than running it over the course of the season. Ray Rice has had a solid year, good enough to finish in the top ten in rushing, but the key to the Ravens offensive success is quality outing by the signal caller. Flacco’s ability to limit turnovers keeps them on track. The passing game is also balanced as the kid from Delaware spreads the ball to all his weapons targeting Derrick Mason and Anquan Boldin nearly the same amount of times.
One question mark on the defensive side of the ball is Ed Reed who, when healthy can take over a game putting pressure on the quarterback coming off the edge but even more with his ball hawking ability. The Pro-Bowl safety was downgraded from probable to questionable after Thursday’s practice. I fully expect him to play, but keep an eye on him to see if he’s slowed by his neck injury. Facing a team that runs the ball as much as KC does, Baltimore’s offense needs to put together some long drives to allow their older defense time to rest.
The Arrowhead noise will affect the Ravens offense and I expect the Chiefs to get to Flacco often, but I’m not sure it will be enough when it’s all said and done.
Prediction: Ravens 17, Chiefs 14
6th-Seed Green Bay Packers (10-6) at 4th-Seed Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
Sunday, January 9th, 2011 4:30pm FOX
Michael Vick says he’s 100 percent, in Atlanta I’m not sure I would have believed him, but it appears he’s there. Vick will face a Packer’s defense that will bring pressure and attempt to rattle the Eagles’ quarterback early. As teams have gotten more pressure of Vick though the season he has become more susceptible to mistakes and has taken a beating in the process. Philadelphia has apparently put down new, fresh grass to make Lincoln Financial a faster track for the Philly youngsters on offense. A big question is whether or not the home team simplifies their offense at all because their lack of postseason experience.
One interesting note on Aaron Rogers’ season is that the Packers four losses that he played significant time correlate with 3 of his four largest passing outputs. The Packers need Brandon Jackson to at least become a threat in the game against an Eagles defense that is middle of the road against the pass and the rush.
Both teams seem as healthy as they have been in recent history. I think defense wins this game in the end and the better defense resided in Green Bay. Aaron Rogers will find his targets early and often attacking the soft side of the defense. This is a Packers team that almost beat New England with Matt Flynn, destroyed the Giants, and beat a Chicago team that is sitting at home this week with a first round bye. Andy Reid is 7-1 in 1st round games, but hasn’t played a team this good.
Prediction: Packers 32, Eagles 28
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